大停滯:全球經濟陷入漸凍,如何擺脫困局?

The Great Stagnation

 

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文章標題 Book : The Great Stagnation

 製作日期:2012.9.20

Have you ever walked into a cherry orchard? There are plenty of cherries right there for the picking. Imagine a tropical island where the citrus and bananas hang from the trees. Low-hanging literal fruit-you don`t even have to cook the stuff.

In a figurative sense, the American economy has enjoyed lots of low-hanging fruit since at least the seventeenth century, whether it be free land, lots of immigrant labor, or powerful new technologies Yet during the last forty years, that low-hanging fruit started disappearing, and we started pretending it was still there. We have failed to recognize that we are at a technological plateau and the trees are more bare than we woulcl like to think. That’s it. That is what has gone wrong. The old understanding was that the world broke through a barrier with the industrial revolution of the eighteenth century and that we can grow economically at high rates forever. The new model is that there are periodic technological plateaus, and right now we are sitting on top of one, waiting for the next major growth revolution. Around the globe, the populous countries that have been wealthy for some time share one common feature: Their rates of economic growth have slowed down since about 1970.

That`s a sign that the pace of technological development has been slowing down. It’s not that something specific caused the slowdown, but rather we started to exhaust the benefits of our previous momentum without renewing them. There have been three major forms of low-hanging fruit in U.S. history:


http://www.books.com.tw/exep/prod/booksfile.php?item=0010553348

 

 

 

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