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文章標題 Book : The Great Stagnation |
製作日期:2012.9.23
2 . Technological
breakthroughs
The period from 1880 to 1940 brought numerous major
technological advances into our lives. The long list of new
developments includes electricity, electric lights, powerful
motors, automobiles, airplanes, household appliances, the
telephone, indoor plumbing, pharmaceuticals, mass production,
the typewriter, the tape recorder, the phonograph, and radio, to
name just a few, with television coming at the end of that period.
The railroad and fast international ships were not completely
new, but they expanded rapidly during this period, tying
together the world economy. Within a somewhat longer time
frame, agriculture saw the introduction of the harvester, the
reaper, and the mowing machine, and the development of highly
effective fertilizers. A lot of these gains resulted from playing out
the idea of advanced machines combined with powerful fossil
fuels, a mix that was fundamentally new to human history and
which we have since exploited to a remarkable degree.
Today, in contrast, apart from the seemingly magical internet,
life in broad material terms isn’t so different from what it was in
1953. We still drive cars, use refrigerators, and turn on the light
switch, even if dimmers are more common these days. The
wonders portrayed in The Jetsons, the space-age television
cartoon from the 19608, have not come to pass. You don’t have a
jet pack. You won’t live forever or visit a Mars colony. Life is
better and we have more stuff, but the pace of change has
slowed down compared to what people saw two or three
generations ago.
It would make my life a lot better to have a teleportation
machine. It makes my life only slightly better to have a larger
refrigerator that makes ice in cubed or crushed form. We all
understand that difference from a personal point of view, yet
somehow we are reluctant to apply it to the economy writ large.
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